Transcript of Video
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for August 10, 2018. Today we‘re looking at the US Dollar versus Japanese Yen [USDJPY] for today’s trade analysis.
Now, I know earlier this week we also looked at the USDJPY, but I think it’s still important to keep an eye on this currency pair as we have significant news coming out of the US today with CPI data popping up in just about 45 minutes from the recording of this video. That CPI data may have a significant impact on the USD, which may of course impact this currency pair.
We have seen the USD have a significant boost over the past 24 hours. Rising, but we haven’t seen the USDJPY rise like we’ve seen the EURUSD going down or the GBPUSD going down on that significant rise on the USD. So, we’re waiting to see if the USDJPY will catch up to that news, to that information, and see if it will begin to rise as well.
We’re looking at a significant support zone. A couple of trends here is the two different trend legs highlighted by the black trend lines. The first rising trend line here. A little bit of a pullback. Second rising trend line is the black trend line on the right. We’re still within the boundaries of that trend I believe. So, as we’ve seen the market going up, we’re looking at support at the orange zone. Again, it’s very similar to what we looked at early on in the week because the market really hasn’t changed that much.
The three blue circles represent periods of resistance at the orange zone. 110.70, 110.95. The black box and the blue box represent support at that same area. Let’s zoom it in on this now. And you could begin to see that a little easier. Resistance back here. Support over here on the right-hand side. Nothing really new at the current moment for the USDJPY.
The little, short blue trend line – just zoom it in a little bit more – showing the bearish push that we’ve seen back down into that orange zone. But take a look at the last three days, today included so far. 110.95, 110.70. Dipped down. Rally higher. Dipped down. Rally higher. We’ve had a couple opportunities. In fact, taken two opportunities to go long here on this currency pair. Both of them seeing well over 20 pips and the market came back down. Took us out at our break even stop loss.
So, I think we’re still looking for the same thing. We’re still looking for support here at the orange zone. We’re looking for it to rally higher. If we get any positive sentiment after CPI, that’ll send this back higher. Pressuring back above the blue trend line sends it back to the green zone. That’s what we’ve been waiting on for the past couple of days, is for it to find support here and go back to the green zone or higher. Blue zone or higher.
The risk here has always been the same all week long. The risk is that it gets underneath that orange-shaded area, the blue box there, and goes lower, which it hasn’t done. It challenged that earlier today, but hasn’t really gone lower. So, I still think we’re looking for the buy. Look at the black box. Seven days it sat there before finally making its move higher. So, three days not out of the question, but looking at that news today could be the key kicker, the motivation that this currency pair needs to make its next move, which is, we’re hoping, a push towards the green zone.
Again, the risk is pretty well defined. We just don’t want it to break out underneath that orange zone. Stop losses would be underneath today’s low if you decide to go long. If the market comes out with CPI and the sentiment is more bearish for the USD, a breakdown of the orange zone is what you’re looking for. So, I don’t think you want to sell it right now on top of that orange zone. That doesn’t make any logical sense to sell right now on top of that orange zone. More likely you’re looking for the long shot. You’re looking for some positive sentiment after CPI data and we’re looking for this to go higher.
Down to the four-hour timeframe. As we get down here, again, you could see the struggle the market has been having inside this blue box for the past two or three days. It’s just been bouncing around in there. Pressuring higher, but just bouncing around down here. Not really having any real significant trend direction for the past two, three days. So, we need some motivation. And again, I’ll be looking for CPI to be that motivation for either the break higher to the green zone or finally breaks the support, the orange-shaded area, and goes lower. Focusing in on the long side right now for the USDJPY today.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.