Transcript of Video
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for December 11, 2018. Today we’re looking at the Euro versus the US Dollar [EURUSD] for today’s trade analysis.
Long-term, this currency pair has been in a pretty decent downtrend along that blue trend line. We can see going all the way back up here to January, February of this year, 2018. Reaching the top up here towards the mid-1.2500s. 1.2560 or so being the cap high here for the currency pair for the year and it’s been moving down ever since.
Recently, we’ve seen a little bit of a leg lower with the black trend line down here at the bottom right-hand corner of the trend. A leg lower pushing all the way down into the 1.1200-level at the very bottom of the chart. In recent weeks though, we’ve been in somewhat of a contracting or consolidating pattern. A triangle pattern even down here between the red trend lines you could see.
Let’s go ahead and zoom in on that a couple of times like this. And now you could see that red triangle pattern here. Falling highs. That’s what we’re representing here. We see three falling highs as the market has pressured back down again and we see some rising lows as the market has pressured back up. We see a couple of times tapping into that bottom red line. So, a couple times tapping there. Three times tapping the top.
We see somewhat of a triangle pattern developing. And even tighter than that. We look at this black box. The green zone at the bottom, 1.1330, 1.1310. The blue zone at the top, 1.1405 down to 1.1375. Holding as resistance. So, we’ve been bouncing around. How many days is this? Ten days now. Really 11, 12, 13, 14, 15. If you really want to take this back a little bit further, we could even take it back like that and say about 15 days we’ve been bouncing around between the blue and the green-shaded area.
So, here we are at the blue zone today. We’ve been at the blue zone for the last three days. Here we are again today. We have this opportunity here. One of two things is going to happen at this blue-shaded area. Either it’s going to do what it’s been doing for 15 days – bounce off of it and turn around and go back down towards the green zone. That’s one potential opportunity here.
What’s it going to take for that? We’re going to see maybe a little bit of a sell off of the EUR. Maybe the USD takes a little bit of a rally today. We do have some US news popping up here in about 40 minutes from the recording of this video. That could cause this to turn back down towards the green zone. Positive US news. Rally on the USD.
So, those are some of the things we’ll look for. Now, the opposite is true. If we were to finally after 15 days of not, but if we were finally to break above the blue zone, 1.1405, then we may see a change of this pattern. So, so far, for 15 days, it’s been not a good idea to buy at the blue zone. Does that make sense? It’s not a good idea for 15 days to buy at the blue zone. So, if that’s your strategy, if you’re thinking about buying the EURUSD, this is probably not the best low risk, high reward opportunity to do so. You would wait for it to break through 1.1405. Stay above 1.1405 before you would consider a buy order. At minimum, be back down here at the green zone.
So, if you’re a buyer, you’re probably waiting for the next opportunity on the EURUSD. Either back at the green zone or above the blue zone. Now, if you’re looking for an intraday opportunity, there could be an opportunity here to go short because for 15 days it’s found resistance here at the blue-shaded area. So, you’re looking for possibilities of going short here, targeting back down to the green zone or lower from the blue-shaded area.
Let’s take it on down to the four-hour timeframe. A little bit of a different perspective here on the four-hour timeframe as we’ve seen the market did get a little bit above it here and then came right back below the blue zone here. So, we have to know that there is the possibility of a little bit of a spike higher before turning around and going down.
So, here we are sitting here into the blue zone. We’ve seen it here many, many times in the past 15 days. We need to know that there’s only two opportunities. It’s either going to bounce and go back down as it has for 15 days, or break through and change the scenario. So, that’s what I’m watching for today. At least at the current point, like I said, buying is not really an option on the table for the day today. The possibility of going short, targeting back to the green zone is really your only opportunity at the current moment for the EURUSD.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.