Transcript of Video
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for January 17, 2019. Today we’re looking at the Euro versus the US Dollar [EURUSD] for today’s trade analysis.
Overall, this currency pair has been in a downtrend for quite a long time. We go all the way back into about a year ago. January and February of 2018, we started this long journey all the way down into the bottom right-hand corner of the chart. In the past recent weeks though, we’ve seen a little bit of a pullback. Retracement of that trend along the black trend line that you see down here at the bottom right-hand corner of the chart.
Let’s go ahead and zoom it in on this area down here. And now you could see how the market has been challenging this area. Rising lows along the black trend line. Somewhat of a rising channel here that we’ve developed here for the EURUSD. Pressured to new highs into the 1.1530, 1.1555, orange-shaded area. Challenged above the 100-period simple moving average. Got back underneath it a couple of days ago and now here we are right back down into support.
Three days now, this is the third day today, holding support at 1.1405, 1.1375. It’s challenging this area, which happens to be very close to the blue trend line as well. The previous long-term downtrend. So, very interesting there. The question of course of the day will be: are we going to find support here within the rising black trend line, the rising channel that we’re seeing here, and turn around and go back up and challenge the pink zone and maybe a new high again, or are we going to see this break down through the blue zone and make a new low back down here to the green zone?
We don’t know which one of those for sure will happen, but this is the area that we want to begin looking for opportunity. Either the break above or the break below this blue-shaded area will give us an opportunity to trade the EURUSD.
Four-hour timeframe not really going to change that too much for us because, again, doing very similar things here. We could see it hold up inside that black circle, the blue-shaded area for a couple of days now. Nothing really too significant for the EURUSD over the past couple of days. So, the question is will we see the market get above, and let’s just kind of put an implied candle here. We’ll make it blue because it’ll be a breakout bullish if it does this.
So, will it break above and start its journey higher, or will it eventually break below the blue zone and start its journey lower? We don’t see either one of those things happening quite yet, so I think that’s the patience that we have to have at least here today, is let’s see whether it’s going to break above or break below.
If you look over here, the pattern has been that pullback that we see. We could see that congestion zone here. Tried to get above and then turned back around and went back down, breaking and pushing underneath and making the new low. So, we need to be careful that we don’t fall prey to false breakouts above 1.1405, but watching for opportunity. Often what I’m looking for is for the market to get above the level. I’ll look for it to get above the level. Maybe even sit back down on top of it as support for a period before looking for it to go back up to the next level. And that would of course be the opposite of what we look for underneath the level.
And you could see that happening here the last time it got underneath the level and then, for a period, it came back and touched the level before falling again. So, that’s somewhat of the pattern that we’ll be looking for to shape up over here around the blue zone. Either a break above or below, look for the retouch as resistance or retouch as support and then it becomes an opportunity to trade the EURUSD over the next coming days.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.