Transcript of Video
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for September 11, 2018. Today we’re taking a look at the Greater British Pound versus the US Dollar [GBPUSD] for today’s trade analysis.
Here, on this daily timeframe, we have come to what is so far the bottom of the downtrend and have retraced back higher a little bit. A little bit of a rising channel here for the GBPUSD over the past couple of weeks. If I put a trend line down here at the bottom, this red line here, and let’s just duplicate it. Put one right on top of it and pull it to the top. You could see somewhat of a channel developing here.
It’s not perfect, but definitely something you might consider as part of your analysis for the GBPUSD is this little bit of a rising channel within the overall downtrend. So, we’re right smack in the middle of that. The purple-shaded area right around 1.3000, 1.3015, 1.3045 is right smack in the middle of that channel. So, there’s potential for it to go up towards the top or back down towards the bottom of that rising channel.
Now, I don’t think there’s really a decision yet by the market which one of those is going to be true. Look back to the left. I’ve circled these yesterday as historical support. Let me zoom in one time. We see these historical support, where the red circles are. We looked at this during the Trade Room yesterday. This black circle showing resistance. So, red circle: support. Black circle: resistance. That’s where we are again. The purple zone being 1.3015, 1.3045.
Somewhat of an indecision zone today. Again, we’re somewhere in the middle of this rising trend channel that we see right here. If we zoom it in one more time, you could see that a little bit better. The purple zone halfway between the top and the bottom. Look at the candle. The current daily candle. Somewhat of an indecision candle. Not quite a doji. The open and close are not exactly on top of each other, but they’re pretty close. And of course the daily candle is not finished, but what we’re seeing here in indecision.
The sellers haven’t taken control. The buyers haven’t taken control. We haven’t seen a breakout above this resistance zone, 1.3045. It hasn’t gotten above it. It’s challenged and tested, but no breakout. It hasn’t really turned back below it yet either for the day today. So, we don’t really know. Is it going to go up to the top of the channel? Is it going to go down to the bottom of the channel? We just don’t know.
There’s nothing really here to give us confidence in that. I’m going to throw in another indication in the mix of lack of confidence, and that’s just looking at the USD right now. USD index. You look at this black box right here. Somewhat of a small range that this has been in for the past week and a half or so and we’re right smack in the middle. We’re not into resistance at the blue zone. We’re not into support at the yellow zone. We’re right smack in the middle between resistance and support.
So, again, the buyers aren’t significantly in control. The sellers aren’t significantly in control on the USD. So, nothing to really go on. Now, if it was at the blue zone or at the yellow zone, we might have more confidence that it was at support or resistance. But right now smack halfway between there and it doesn’t really give us confidence. It’s a 50-50 shot really. Could either go up or down at this stage of the game for the USD.
Back to the GBPUSD. Again, we’re stuck right here in this purple zone. It’ll even be interesting to look at it here on the four-hour timeframe because take a look at this. In spite of news this morning out of the UK, we see indecision. Look at this candle here with a long wick on the bottom and a long wick on top. That’s completely an indecision moment for the buyers and sellers.
Nobody really wants to take control of this pair. Now, the current candle is more bearish than bullish, but at least at this point there’s nothing really to give us confidence in who’s going to take control of this currency pair. Are the bears going to come back in? The USD going to suddenly rally and send this back lower. Are we going to get some more Brexit news or some other news out of the UK that causes some movement here? We just don’t know.
So, for the time being, the best thing I can say for this currency pair is wait for somebody to take control. Either an indication of taking control on bearish movement would be the market getting underneath the purple zone, or the market taking control as bullish movement, the price action gets above the resistance zone, 1.3045. Until one of those two things happens, I think we need to wait for the market to make the decision before we try to guess what the market is going to do here on the GBPUSD today.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.