Transcript of Video
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for November 29, 2018. Today we’re looking at the US Dollar versus the Canadian Dollar [USDCAD] for today’s trade analysis.
We’re looking here at the daily timeframe. There’s really two major trends to look at here. The left-hand side of the chart underneath the two blue trend lines, we saw the market falling for quite a period of time, going all the way back into June of this year through about the end of September, beginning of October. We were falling and made the new lowest low all the way down here at the bottom of the chart.
Then the market shifted its direction and started moving higher, and we could see the two red trend lines delineating the channel as the market continued to rise back higher again. So, two different trends. The downtrend and the uptrend. Let’s study the downtrend for a minute.
Under the blue trend lines, we saw the market hit. Black circle. Top of the chart. Fall. Retracement. Black trend line. Pullback. Retracement. Correction. Whatever you want to call that. It pulled back higher and then found resistance and went back down. Pulled back higher again, middle, and then went back down. One more time. We see the market pulling back higher, finding resistance, and went back down.
Then we saw a little bit of a short pullback right here. Let’s put a line there as well. The last ditch effort there. We see the market pulling back here and then made the new lowest low. And then, finally, we start to see the opposite happen as the market starts going up. We see a pullback here, and a pullback here, and a pullback phase here, and one more right here, and well, really, a couple of days ago, we could see it right here as well. So, look at all that. Five times making those pullbacks and then eventually making a new high.
We have seen a new high. Yesterday, we saw the market pressure all the way into 1.3340s towards the 1.3350-level. Let’s see. The high of yesterday’s candle is 1.3359. So, 1.3359 being the high of yesterday and now we’ve seen a sudden dramatical pullback, leaving this smaller body, long wick on top. We spoke a little bit about price action yesterday in the live Trade Room. About some clues that we look at for what the big players are doing.
And these sudden pullbacks, these long wicks at the tops of candles are a clue to a sudden infusion of sellers that as the market reaches a particular price level in the market, a sudden infusion of sell orders drives the candle back down. At one point, that was a large blue candle turning into a long wick at the top. Clue to a sudden infusion of sellers into the market. So, the question is: will this be our beginning of our pullback phase or a change of the pattern?
I mean we’ve been in an uptrend for quite a long time. There’s a couple of outlined factors. What’s the USD doing? We’ve seen it reach resistance. We saw the pullback on the USD yesterday afternoon. We know that oil has been falling significantly over the past several weeks. Crude oil. And it’s reached significant bottom. Will it turn around and go back up, because the fact is if oil suddenly turns around and has a retracement of its downtrend, we could see that affect the USDCAD. We’ll talk about that again later in the Trade Room today.
So, we’re watching this as a clue to a potential shift in direction. Just like this was going down along the blue trend lines and then eventually turned back higher, we’ll watch the red trend lines as it starts to shift. Potentially shift its momentum and direction that this currency pair has been in for quite a long time.
Again, some of those clues. Yesterday’s candle. The yellow zone is very interesting. 1.3265, 1.3285. We’re kind of stuck in there right now. Look at today’s daily candle. Just that little blue candle right there. One of two things we’ll look for today. Either it starts to go back higher, gets back above the yellow zone, starts tackling higher levels and we see a new high above the orange zone and taking it back all the way to the blue zone or higher. That’s one potential opportunity, or with yesterday’s surge lower and if we see other, again, clues on the USD and oil, we look for the market to break down through the yellow zone, touching back down to the green zone. Bottom of the channel. And potentially breakdown of that could even change the direction overall of the USDCAD.
So, we’re watching this yellow zone. Go down to the four-hour timeframe and it’ll really be evidence what’s happening around this yellow zone. There’s our sudden infusion of sellers yesterday. Touching down here into the yellow zone. A breakdown underneath that yellow zone, 1.3265, we’ll look for the market to challenge back down towards 1.3225. Of course a push back above, may see it back up.
But I think right now the bears are trying to take control again, and let’s see if we could see this break down through 1.3265 today for a little bit of a pullback to the green zone for the USCAD today.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.