Transcript of Video
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for December 17, 2018. Today we’re taking a look at the US Dollar versus the Canadian Dollar [USDCAD] for today’s trade analysis.
First things first, of course this currency pair has been in an uptrend channel for quite a while. We could see that on the right-hand side of the chart. The two red trend lines. Previously of course the blue trend lines showing us a decent downtrend here for this currency pair, where we’ve seen rising and falling within that blue channel between the blue trend lines. Recently of course we’ve seen the market change direction and has been moving higher as oil has been falling off.
Crude oil has been falling off. USD has had rising over the past several months. We’ve seen this currency pair take a pretty nice ride to the topside, challenging significant historical resistance. Look at the black circle back here, and I’ll zoom in one time and scroll back just a little bit. There we go.
Black circle on the left-hand side of the chart. Resistance and became the reversal point for the blue trend channel falling down to the bottom of the chart. So, it’s a significant resistance right around the 1.3390, 1.3375-level, the blue zone at the top of the chart.
Let’s go ahead and zoom it in on the current market and you could see what’s been happening over the past 11 days. 11 trading days holding as resistance just underneath the 1.3400-level. Right now holding right around the 1.3390-level. So, what we’re looking for is really a significant break of that blue zone. We need some information that tells us it’s going to get above this blue-shaded area.
Let me make that black arrow a little bit easier to see there. Some indication that it’s going to get above that blue-shaded area and stay above it and continue to go higher towards the green-shaded area. If it can’t do that, then of course a push back underneath or staying underneath the blue-shaded area may see it fall back down to the orange zone as our support, 1.3340, 1.3320. So, really we’re watching this blue zone for clues and evidence of a breakout above that blue-shaded area, 1.3390, to continue to the green-shaded area.
Let’s take it to the four-hour timeframe. And as you could see here, we’ve just been struggling with this blue zone. We haven’t had a real good solid push back down in the other direction. We haven’t had a real good solid push back above the blue-shaded area. So, what we’re looking for today. Let me just kind of draw it out here for you. Let me change this to a somewhat of an implied candle. What I’m looking for is something to tell me.
One more thing here. Let me check this box. Something to tell me that this is going to stay above this blue-shaded area and continue to go higher. Something it hasn’t done, well, through this period of staying underneath 1.3390. Something it hasn’t done is a full candle body above that blue-shaded area. That’s one thing I’ll be looking for.
The other thing of course is that we finally see a sudden selloff of this currency pair. Maybe the USD falls off again or we start to see the CAD fall off again due to oil falling or rising. We can watch for those indications as well. But right now we just kind of have to be patient, waiting for the right setup here for this currency pair. The setup will be the final break of the blue zone for a continuation to the green zone, 1.3420, 1.3445, or a sudden reversal back underneath 1.3375 to see some reversal early part of this week for the USDCAD.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.