Transcript of Video
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for January 16, 2019. Today we’re looking at the US Dollar versus the Swiss Franc [USDCHF] for today’s trade analysis.
Two different trends that we really want to take a look at here. The black trend line was a rising trend. Previous rising trend going from all the way down here into the mid to low-0.9500s all the way to the top into the 1.0100s at the top of the chat. Then, over the past several weeks, we’ve seen a downtrend. The USD falling against the CHF along the blue trend line, pressuring from the high point all the way back down here into the 0.9700-level as the market continued to fall back down.
Now, over the past few days, week or so, we have seen the market pulling back higher. Now challenging and testing that blue trend line. 100-period moving average waving into the chart here right about where the current market price is as well. You see it somewhat flat over the past couple of months as the market has been a little bit lower. A little bit higher. Now a little bit lower.
It’s just flattened that moving average out. So, we don’t really have a significant rising trend. We don’t have a significant falling trend over a long period of time, where you would see distance between the market price and the moving average. That would give you a more aggressive move if that were to happen. We don’t really see that. So, we’re just kind of hovering around the moving average and the falling blue trend line here today for the USDCHF.
Let’s zoom it in a couple of times here on the daily timeframe. And there it is right there. You could see the moving average. Challenging it yesterday. Challenging it today. Running into resistance. 0.9890, 0.9900. 0.9900 is the top of the purple-shaded area. That, again, can be a clue to potential resistance based on that even price handle, 0.9900. So, we know that that has potential to show some resistance along with the moving average and the falling trend line.
So, let’s put an arrow here. We know that this is potential resistance for the day today. And of course the other side of that coin is that if it breaks above 0.9900, we may see the continued rise here for the USDCHF. Let’s go back just a little bit. You don’t have to look too hard. We have seen historical, factual, statistical resistance here around the purple-shaded area before. There it is right there, where the black circle is.
Just take it back in time just a little bit more and we’ve seen actually support here before as well. Take a look right here. So, we know what we’re highlighting here with that purple zone between 0.9890 and 0.9900 is that it’s a factual, statistical area of trading decision. On the left circle, the trading decisions were support and a new rally as the market went back up from the purple zone. On the right black circle, it was resistance. Buyers exiting, sellers entering, and a point of resistance where the market went back down.
So, again, what it would represent to me as an individual trader who has absolutely no control over this is it’s an area of decision that the Forex market has made trading decisions around 0.9890, 0.9900. So, if the market has made trading decisions, factual decisions here, I consider my own trading decisions around the same area because the market has done that. So, again, there’s only two things that we’re going to look for around this area where the market has made decisions before.
It’s going to break through it and go higher or it’s going to bounce off of it and turn around and go down. So, we’re going to watch for clues, evidence, and price action around this purple zone that tell us one of those two things. Turn around and go down or break through and go higher.
Let’s take it down to the four-hour timeframe. And as we get down here, it doesn’t really change the picture. It doesn’t change the scenario for us. It just tells us that this is where the market is challenging today. And we’re still waiting to see what’s going to happen. Will we get a candle that gets above the purple zone for the first time in quite a long time? Will it get above there and begin the next phase higher?
By the way, back here, where the black circle is and what we looked at as our last resistance area back here, we didn’t see a candle above that purple zone. It never got above it. It challenged. It tested. It never stayed above it. So, that would be the clue that tells us that it’s going to continue that upside price action.
The other side of that is that we’re also looking for some clue and evidence to selling pressure from this same area. And we don’t really have that yet either. So, while there isn’t a trading opportunity at the very current moment, we at least have an opportunity, an idea of where we’re looking for our next trade opportunity around 0.9890, 0.9900, and we have an idea of some of the price action that’s going to give us a clue that the buyers are staying in control, breaking through the purple zone, or sellers are turning into control and we see bearish price action develop for the USDCHF today.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.