📌JPMorgan just cut its 10-year Treasury yield forecast to 1.75% at year-end, compared with 2.45% previously and 2.13% on Monday in Asian trading.
📌Projections are a contrast with JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon’s warning last month that yields were already “extraordinarily low” on a historical basis, and that 4% wouldn’t be a bad number.
📌At Morgan Stanley, the cross-asset strategy team’s model has flipped to “downturn” from “expansion” for the first time since 2007.
- As Lisa Abramowicz reported on Bloomberg, “It’s also a contrast with Goldman Sachs Group Inc., where analysts still see 10-year yields at 2.80% at year-end.”
- Price Rotation in the 10-year US Treasury indicates another (16%) probability to the downside to touch in the weeks ahead 1.81 level which played key support several times since 2012.
- Over the last 7 years, the 1.81 historical level has only been broken on two scenarios: in May 2012, then price bottom at 1.38 in July 2012. Finally, in June 2016 and price bottom weeks later in July of the same year at the 1.32 level.