After the China Release valve, the market has entered a kind of balance that’s been sticky.
There’s been a few failed pushes on either side of the range. The failed breakdown had to do with some econ data or tariff news, and the failed breakout was the NVDA earnings fade.
Chasing the markets on either side has been a trashy trade since May opex.
Much of this is due to concentration risk— when 7 stocks are pushing around the indices, if they don’t move much then the market isn’t budging.
It’s been better to play the rotation momentum. For a few days it was nuclear stocks like SMR and OKLO, then a couple in-play stocks on earnings like BOX and ULTA.
Can a headline come out and knock us out of this trading range? Sure, it’s possible. But the more likely scenario is that the market will move when far fewer traders are positioned for it.
We’ve got participants who are still shell-shocked from April’s selloff and trying to top tick the market with put buys. They’re balanced by the institutional capital that is now drastically underperforming their benchmarks and trying to reposition through longer dated call option purchases.
Both sides need to have their option positions grind down into dust. Maybe one more options expiration cycle, and then we can get resolution out of this range.
Is the AI Juice Squeezed?
All eyes were on the latest NVDA earnings. It’s not just about the number – it’s the downstream effects of the entire AI and tech ecosystem.
And the report was a monster. $44B in revenue and an earnings beat.
Yet the stock faded… what gives?
The stock had a hard rally off the April lows but there’s still concerns that Chinese revenue impacts are going to be a problem for a few quarters.
There was also another Deepseek model that showed up the day of NVDA earnings, which was not a coincidence. It’s beating benchmarks which means efficiency gains lead to less chip demand.
But here’s the primary reason NVDA had a failure to launch.
IT’S A THREE TRILLION DOLLAR COMPANY. That’s a big boat, and to get that boat to move it takes a lot of fuel.
The liquidity required to turn NVDA into a momentum stock is massive, and if the stars aren’t aligning, then it’s not going to rip.
The AI hype is real. Every day I get a news story that blows away any expectations I had on the industry.
Yet… NVDA is not an AI company. They’re a bottleneck supplier in a very competitive field. And unless there’s a new catalyst or narrative shift, what’s going to drive marginal liquidity into this name?
It’s time to look at the other bottlenecks. Instead of chips, consider the other limiting factors. Power infrastructure. Fiber buildout. Nuclear. Data centers.
There’s more juice left to squeeze in some of these other spots of the market, and some of the world’s best investors you’ve never heard of are going to show us the way…
Click here to see how we’ve followed insiders to gains of 443%, 520%, and even 1,091%.
