They met by the lake. The message? “Let’s not blow up global trade... at least for 90 days.”
After weeks of escalating tariff warfare peaking with Liberation Day’s brutal 145% rates U.S. and Chinese officials just hit pause. In Geneva, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Rep Jamieson Greer sat down with China’s top trade reps in what looks, in hindsight, like a strategic off-ramp.
And it worked.
The Market’s Message: Fear Off, Risk On
As the ink dried on the 90-day tariff détente, the market ripped. The S&P 500 surged 3.3%, the Nasdaq spiked 4.3%, and the VIX plunged below 20, its lowest reading since late March.
This wasn’t just relief buying. It was a wholesale unwind of embedded downside hedging and risk-off positioning that had been building since early April.
The sectors that bore the brunt of the tariff fears-–shipping, retail, logistics, all snapped back with power:
Maersk +10%
FedEx +7%
Amazon +8%
Even Bitcoin, which spiked past $105,000 on the tariff news, gave back a little—but it's still up 30% since April lows. Meanwhile, gold finally cooled off after a monster run, down 3% on the day but still holding +20% YTD.
This was a macro relief valve being pulled. And it tells you one thing: the market wanted this reset badly.
So Is It Over? Not Even Close.
Yes, the 145% tariffs are shelved. But 30% tariffs are still in place and that’s not nothing.
Trump framed it as a “total reset,” but strategically, this feels more like a tactical pause. The market may have returned to March price levels, but the structural risks, supply chain damage, business uncertainty, elevated input costs didn’t vanish in a weekend.
In fact, this entire move reeks of political reflex. As we’ve said before, Trump is acutely sensitive to market moves. And after watching the S&P dip into bear market territory post–Liberation Day, the White House had to act.
Step 1 was the “90-day pause” announcement.
Step 2? Face-to-face talks and a soft reversal in tone.
And the market bought it.
What the Price Action’s Telling Us
We're back near the same levels as March 4–5, before things spiraled. Back then, tariffs were just starting to escalate first on Mexico and Canada, then China.
At the time, Trump warned of a "little disturbance" to the market. He got a big one.
But now that prices are back and volatility has collapsed, it’s tempting to think we’re back to normal. That’s a mistake.
This Is Where the Real Opportunities Start
Now that the panic selling has reversed and key technicals (like the S&P reclaiming the 200-day MA) are in place, we’re entering phase two: repositioning.
And this is where money rotates, not just rebounds.
💡 Market Opportunity: Where to Focus Now
With the tariff spike unwinding, here’s where I’d be looking to deploy capital:
1. Global Freight & Logistics
The names that got crushed hardest Maersk, FedEx, ZIM, Matson are now repricing with authority. This isn’t just a bounce. If shipping resumes and freight rates normalize, these names could see multi-quarter margin expansion.
Playbook: Look for beat-up supply chain names with operating leverage and China exposure.
2. U.S. Manufacturing Hedge Plays
Even with tariffs reduced, we’re still living in a protectionist environment. That favors companies like Nucor (NUE), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), and TimkenSteel (TMST) domestic players buffered from global competition.
Playbook: These names hold up if talks break down again. They’re your volatility hedge with upside.
3. Global Consumer Recovery
If sentiment around China trade stabilizes, so will consumer discretionary names that rely on imports and global sourcing: Nike (NKE), Lululemon (LULU), and Best Buy (BBY) all look ready to retrace their tariff-driven drawdowns.
Strategic Takeaway: This Was the Easy Move
Cutting tariffs to stop a market panic? That’s the easy part. The next phase—trade deals, structural changes, long-term diplomacy that’s where this gets hard.
And markets are not pricing in the possibility of another reversal if talks stall. The fear trade has vanished. That creates opportunity but also fragility.
If you’ve been following our roadmap, this relief rally was a highly probable outcome. But the path forward now shifts from reactive to predictive.
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