If you’d fallen asleep before Trump's tariff announcement, missed every headline, and just now checked your portfolio... you might assume 2025 has been boring.
But for those of us wide awake? We’ve just lived through a full-blown policy shock, a 20% drawdown, a violent reversal, and a momentum break the likes of which we haven’t seen since 2002.
And now?
The S&P 500 is pretty much flat for the year.
📉 From Panic to Pause
The “Liberation Day” tariffs were the spark—Trump’s April 2 policy bomb that nuked sentiment and forced a repricing of global risk.
Markets plunged 20% intraday. Bonds rallied on growth fear. CPI prints got dissected like crime scenes.
Then came the 90-day tariff pause on April 9… and a full-blown snapback.
Since that moment, the S&P has rallied 18%.
This isn’t normal chop. It’s a compressed volatility cycle—and those always leave traces.
If you’re a long-term investor, great. You survived it. But if you’re an active trader, now is when things get interesting.
🧠 Lessons in Price Behavior
Here’s the part most investors miss:
Despite all the noise—tariffs, CPI, Ukraine headlines—the S&P 500 is now right back where it started.
Flat year-to-date.
Flat momentum… until this week.
"Think and act for the long term. Ignore the noise. Buy low, sell high. Keep your emotions in check. Don't put all of your eggs in one basket. Stay the course.”
— Ben Carlson,
That’s true. But if you’re trying to outperform the market, “not looking” isn’t a strategy.
You have to understand what’s driving movement—and why a flat print after a 20% drop matters.
📈 A Powerful Signal in the Tape
Let’s talk about RSI.
We just broke one of the longest RSI downtrend streaks since 2002. And history tells us: when momentum flips this hard, the forward returns are strong.
+4.7% average gain over 3 months
+6.6% over 6 months
+15.5% over 12 months
8 of the last 9 setups like this were profitable
That’s a serious edge.
This isn't a call to chase. It’s a call to understand: when momentum flips this cleanly, the tape is sending a message.
Now the real question is: what could push it further?
⚠️ What Comes Next: The Wildcard
Most of the recent market move has been about removing downside risk—removing tariffs, defusing inflation, smoothing Fed expectations.
But one catalyst is still lurking: a potential Ukraine-Russia peace summit in Turkey.
Putin’s appearance is unknown. Zelenskyy’s participation is unclear. Trump says he’d show up “if it would help.”
If—if—this comes together meaningfully, the impact could be global:
Energy stability in Europe
Lower geopolitical risk premiums
Support for global growth narratives
That’s a major unlock. And it’s under the radar.
But as always, markets move before headlines confirm what’s already priced in.
🤖 Meanwhile… Don’t Sleep on AI
AI fatigue is setting in, but smart money is still rotating in.
Next week, we will be going deep on “super chip” companies that could become the new AI infrastructure leaders.
I’ll be naming names in our paid substack so pay attention.
🔍 Market Internals Today
S&P 500: Flat
Nasdaq: +0.7% (mega-caps led)
Dow: –0.2% (UNH -17%)
Russell 2000: –0.8%
Bond Yields: Rising again (10-year near 4.5%)
VIX: Steady near 18
Under the hood, 361 of the 500 S&P names were red. But GOOGL, NVDA, and TSLA were up ~4%, lifting the index.
That’s narrow breadth, not broad confidence.
💡 Strategic Takeaway
We’ve exited panic and re-entered complacency.
But beneath the surface:
The bond market is pricing inflation risk
The Fed is still holding
The geopolitical wildcard is active
AI rotation is accelerating quietly
This is not the time to be passive.
