When America was flooded with GLP-1 agonist drugs, we started seeing some “weird” things occur.
Not only are these drugs managing diabetes… and causing significant weight loss…
They are fixing patients’ brains.
Addictive tendencies are down, mental health is improved, and there’s some early signs that these drugs can be neuroprotective and significantly reduce the risk of Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s.
There are some massive second order effects to come out of this that are not being priced into the market.
For example, dialysis costs Medicare $50 billion per year. If patients lose weight before they get to this point, then it has major deficit reduction effects.
This can be compounded with nearly all obesity-related diseases, which are closing in at a $1T per year cost in the United States.
If we can get these spending numbers down, that has a “trickle down” effect into the US deficit and the broader economy.
Yet there’s been a major downside with some of the recent drugs.
I’ve known about semaglutide (Ozempic) for a long time because it was being used as a research chemical by biohackers and bodybuilders. And the one thing you’re supposed to do is start with a low dose and titrate up until the side effects are a little too much.
But these doctors prescribing the drugs over a single Zoom meeting? They’re prescribing massive doses right out the gate.
And that’s leading to sarcopenia – a degradation of muscle tissue. Including the heart.
The media is now pushing horror stories about people who were on Ozempic and Wegovy and ended up having a very bad time. Because you can’t just have a “magic shot” – you need diet and exercise too.
If you go max dose with a morbidly obese person and they don’t use their muscles, they’re going to end up injured, or worse.
That’s the narrative that has caused Eli Lilly (LLY) to top out since the summer of 2024:
Not only does the company have competitive pressures from all sides, there are powers attempting to take out their drug. Because if you remove addictive tendencies, the soda companies lose market share.
There’s a lot at stake.
There’s a new peptide called Retatrutide that could be the magic bullet Eli Lilly has been waiting for. It’s a triple agonist, targeting GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon receptors.
By targeting glucagon receptors, it causes your body to focus on fat stores more than “across the board” depletion.
And by combining GIP with GLP-1, you get improved insulin sensitivity, which means when you eat, more calories will be utilized in the muscle first.
We’re getting closer to a magic bullet. I think if we combine this with a “growth hormone” therapy, then a lot of people will get healthier.
Retatrutide is currently undergoing Phase 3 trials with the FDA, and the first results are supposed to show up in December 2025. That’s nearly six months out, which means we could start seeing a “buy the rumor” runup in the stock as it has successfully retested the lower edge of its range.
More importantly, I’ll be monitoring my number-one buy signal as this opportunity develops…
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